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Ukraine -- End Game

Letters from the Journal of Rober Moynihan
No. 3, February 19, 2014, Wednesday


"With a troubled heart I am following what is happening in Kiev. I assure the Ukrainian people of my closeness and I pray for the victims of the violence, for their families and for the injured. I call on all sides to stop every violent action and seek agreement and peace." —Pope Francis, during his Wednesday General Audience in St. Peter's Square today



"Those holding power bear full responsibility for what is happening in our country." —Ukrainian Byzantine-rite Catholic Archbishop Sviatoslav Shevchuk, major archbishop of the Ukrainian Catholic Church (and close friend of Pope Francis), in Kiev today



"Kiev was so beautiful. We were invited to sing with the old babushkas in church. Afterwards, they lifted their hands toward us as if in blessing, and sang a hymn we did not understand. They gave us two icons, of Mary and Jesus, as gifts." —My son, Christopher, speaking to Pope Francis in the Domus Santa Marta this summer, after visiting Kiev toward the end of a long journey on the Trans-Siberian railroad across Russia from east to west, ending in Rome



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My sons visited Ukraine this past summer, taking the Trans-Siberian railroad across Russia from China, through Mongolia, and through most of Siberia to Kazan and Moscow, then south to Kiev.



Kiev was the city they liked best of all those they visited. Kiev, that multi-hilled city of golden domes and ancient monasteries, of culture and learning.



There they met with Konstantin Sigov, one of the country's leading Orthodox intellectuals. There they visited the village of Lyshnya, just outside Kiev, tasting a home-made liquor so potent it nearly burned their throats. There in a local Orthodox church, they sang with a group of mostly old women, stumbling over the old Slavonic (they speak only modern Russian).



So deeply were they affected by the hospitality that they experienced, the good food and the joyful simplicity of the people, that when they reached Rome, my older son told me he wanted to return to Kiev to live for a year, to study. And we began to makes plans for that.



Now Kiev is marked by flames, by blood in the streets. Twenty-five people have been killed, and the country seems to be sliding toward civil war.



This is not the place to attempt to set forth all the reasons for what is occurring.



But it seems clear that, with this outbreak of violence, with the talk now of the possible break-up of the country, with the declaration of President Obama that the Ukrainian government must not "cross a line" in dealing with the protesters, that some sort of geo-political, geo-cultural "end game" has begun in a country on the border of Russia, on the hinge between Europe and Asia, at the intersection between Eurasia and the Middle East.



It also is clear that what is happening is not just about Ukraine but also, and perhaps primarily, about Russia.



And since Russia is at the heart of the message of Fatima -- "in the end, Russia shall be converted, and a period of peace shall be granted to the world," as the Lady said to the three children in Portugal in 1917 -- what is happening now in Kiev must also be seen in the context of the Fatima message: in the context of the future of the Christian faith in Russia and of a coming age of peace.



A German member of parliament, interviewed today, said that Ukraine is going to be absorbed into the European Union but that the real issue is whether Russia will follow this same process.



The question becomes: Will the revolution unfolding in Ukraine -- a revolution some hope may also unfold in Russia -- bring about a "post-Christian" culture in the former Soviet space, within a highly secularized European Union, and not a religious conversion?



Or might what is unfolding, with the presence of many religious leaders from both the Catholic and Orthodox sides, lead to an unprecedented religious conversion?





In this context, just an hour ago, I received as email containing an appeal from an old friend, Myroslav Marynovych, 65, the vice-rector of the Ukrainian Catholic University in Lviv, and a founder of Amnesty International Ukraine. He himself was a political prisoner in the Soviet time. (Photo below)


His grandfather was a priest of the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church and his family was very religious. He attended the Lviv Polytechnical Institute, where he spoke out against the Soviet regime which did not uphold the ideals of Communism. In 1976, he became a founding member of the Ukrainian Helsinki Group, which led to his arrest on April 23, 1977, for "Anti-Soviet Agitation and Propaganda." The trial and sentencing lasted 11 months, and he was convicted and sentenced to the maximum term: 7 years of hard labor and 5 years in exile.


In 1987, he returned to Ukraine, and worked in an oil refinery and as a journalist.



I met him a decade ago on a visit to Ukraine, and came to appreciate greatly his vision for his country and for entire post-Soviet territory.



In his email, entitled "What can Ukraine expect from the West now?" was the following text:



I write to you as a former prisoner of conscience of the Brezhnev era. All other titles are rapidly losing sense in the light of the bleeding Ukrainian Maidan [Note: Maidan Square is the central square of Kiev.]



All my life I admired Western civilization as the realm of values. Now I am close to rephrasing Byron’s words: “Frailty, thy name is Europe!” The strength of bitterness here is matched by the strength of our love for Europe.



If it still concerns anybody in decision-making circles, I may answer the question in the title.



First and foremost, stop “expressing deep concern." All protestors on the Maidan have an allergy to this by now in these circumstances senseless phrase, while all gangsters in the Ukrainian governmental gang enjoy mocking the helplessness of the EU [Note: the European Union].



Take sanctions. Don’t waste time in searching for their Achilles’ heel: it is the money deposited in your banks. Execute your own laws and stop money laundering. The Europe we want to be part of can never degrade the absolute value of human lives in favor of an absolute importance of money.



Also cancel Western visas for all governmental gangsters and their families. It is a scandal that ordinary Ukrainians living their simple lives have to provide their ancestors’ family trees to obtain a visa while ruling criminals guilty of murder, “disappearances”, and fraud in the eyes of the whole world enjoy virtually free-entry status in Europe.



Do not listen to Yanukovych’s and Putin’s propagandistic sirens. Just put cotton in your ears. Be able to decode their lie; otherwise they will decode your ability to defend yourself.



Instead, listen to Ukrainian media sacrificing their journalists’ lives to get truthful information. Do not rely so much upon the information provided by your special correspondents in other countries who come to Ukraine for a day or two. Hire Ukrainians who live in this country to translate the Ukrainian cry of pain. Secure money for that right now instead of waiting for funds from next year’s budget.



Come to Ukrainian hospitals and talk to so-called “extremists” who want to “subvert the legitimately elected government,” those who have “cruelly beaten” policemen and “deliberately” blasted explosives to wound themselves. Yes, the face of war is cruel. But, arriving at the Maidan, these people repeated almost literally what King George VI said to his people on the 3 September 1939: “We have been forced into a conflict, for we are called… to meet the challenge of a principle which, if it were to prevail, would be fatal to any civilized order in the world.”



Go out of your zone of comfort! Just recall the coddled ancient Romans who refused to do that in time. Cajoling Putin won’t bring you security. Letting him take control over Ukraine could make the world peace even more vulnerable. A Ukraine divided by force won’t bring the world peace, just as a Poland and Germany divided by force didn’t bring peace to the world.



Let us conclude in solidarity with the King and the Ukrainian people: “The task will be hard. There may be dark days ahead, and war can no longer be confined to the battlefield, but we can only do the right as we see the right, and reverently commit our cause to God. If one and all we keep resolutely faithful to it, ready for whatever service or sacrifice it may demand, then with God's help, we shall prevail.”



—Myroslav Marynovych



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The Catholic University of Ukraine, based in Lviv in the west of the country, also issued a powerful statement today.



UKRAINIAN CATHOLIC UNIVERSITY AFFIRMS THAT RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE CURRENT ESCALATION RESTS SOLELY ON THE GOVERNMENT


19 February 2014, 14:56

UCU Statement

The line on our nation’s electrocardiogram has again peaked. The Maidan survived the internal forces’ assault yesterday, but suffered unspeakable losses. On TV the smoke rising from the numerous fires on the Maidan looks like smoke from censers at a massive national memorial service.

May the souls of the innocent victims rest in peace, where the righteous repose! Let the Lord accept them into the kingdom of heaven, let Him heal the numerous wounds with His merciful hand, let Him relieve the pain of the people who have once again been deceived by the authorities!

We unequivocally affirm that responsibility for the current escalation rests solely on the government – personally Viktor Yanukovych and his “hawkish” command. Every case of escalation, each more striking in its complete absurdity, slashes our hopes for a peaceful and wise solution to the crisis and brings us closer to a humanitarian catastrophe. Every case seems to check off the next item in the “crisis managers’” secret plan.

Conversely, every step toward overcoming social tensions, every manifestation of the people’s self-defense, every effort to be faithful to God’s commandments – all of this makes us co-authors in the positive program of the Lord’s Providence. The Ukrainian Catholic University is and will always be a supporter of this latter path and calls upon all people of good will to choose it. In the current difficult conditions, where those in power undermine the very institution of government, we aim to be an island of peace and reliable support to all those who defend the national interests of Ukraine.

We declare our unwavering loyalty to Mayor of Lviv, Mr. Andriy Sadovy and the legitimately elected bodies in Lviv and the region, who are trusted and protect the interests of the people. We are willing to cooperate with them to ensure the rule of law and civil rights. At a time when the whole executive branch is wobbling, the Ukrainian Catholic University announces a mode of self-management and self-discipline.

This decision embodies our belief that at this critical time for the state, universities have to demonstrate their ability not only to function effectively without guidance from above, but also to become a mainstay in the formation of a new framework for education and social life in general.

The leadership and all faculty of UCU are in solidarity with the strike declared today by the students and support its demands. We live in one community and share the same values.

May the merciful Lord fill us all with hope and courage to sacrificially serve Ukraine during these difficult trials!



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The Anthropological Question





"You live in a deranged age, more deranged that usual, because, in spite of great scientific and technological advances, man has not the faintest idea of who he is or what he is doing." —Walker Percy (1916-1990), American Catholic convert and writer, author of The Message in the Bottle and Lost in the Cosmos

I fear that the western powers and those in the east are stumbling into a war that neither wants, neither can afford and neither can win, as our great grandfathers and their fathers did in August a century ago. What is playing out now in eastern Europe and Syria is unfinished business remaining from the failed armistice which ended that war, the collapse of ancient empires and the aftermath of Versailles.

God help us.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26262219

Who is going to fight whom? Russia's army has a hard time tackling Georgia, so they're going to take on Ukraine, Romania, Poland, and then NATO. Not bloody likely.

Russia's going to intervene in Syria? With what? They have trouble moving two frigates, two amphibious assault ships and a tanker from Sebastopol to Syria. The Israeli navy could sink them in an afternoon.

And, of course, our European friends and allies can generate barely 25,000 deployable troops for use out of region, so unless we want to go to war, there ain't gonna be a war.

There is a qualitative difference between Russia potentially acting in Ukraine as opposed to Syria, proximity not being the least factor. Russia is next door and Ukraine is part of their former empire. With Ukraine, whether as a province or a client state, Russia is an empire. Without Ukraine, Russia is...? Patriarch Sviatoslav (UGCC) and Patriarch Philaret (UOC-KP) are on board, as are some hierarchs of the UOC-MP. My greatest fear is of the country splitting apart along linguistic lines. We can only continue to pray that someday the Lord will grant us the courage to forge a single Kyivan Church that will lead all of our people, regardless of language, closer to Him.

True, but. . . (And here I put on my military analyst's hat):

The Russian army is materially weak, poorly manned, poorly trained, and hasn't conducted any large scale military exercises in more than a decade. Its attempt to invade Georgia was not a great success and revealed serious organizational and operational weaknesses. Since then, Putin has systematically starved the ground forces for funds, in order to push higher visibility projects (new ICBMs and SLBMs, new submarines, an aircraft carrier, and new combat aircraft) intended mainly to create the impression of strength and competence.

On the other hand, the Ukrainian army has invested seriously in modernization, has participated actively in the NATO Partnership for Peace (PfP) Program and has upgraded its training and doctrine with Western assistance. Fighting in Ukraine, in defense of their homeland, the Ukrainian armed forces by themselves are probably capable of inflicting a decisive defeat upon the Russian army, It is unlikely, though, that any attack on Ukraine would go unsupported, and Ukraine's contiguous neighbors, including Romania and Poland, also have modern, well-trained military forces.

So, from a strictly strategic standpoint, Russia--or more specifically, Putin--loses as soon as the first Russian tank crosses into Ukraine. Nothing would unite the Ukrainian people more. Yanukovich would be out on his ass (if not hanging from a lamp post) overnight, and a new national unity government would be installed. The army and people would mobilize against the invader, and the invasion itself would probably be defeated quite decisively in short order.

That, in turn, would have catastrophic results for Putin, since his entire regime is based on the appearance of restoring Russia as a great power. Defeat at the hands of what most Russians consider a rebellious province would shatter that illusion, and all the pent up dissatisfaction in Russia would boil over--most probably led by the military itself, which would blame Putin's policies for its failure.

Good thing Vladimir Vladimirovich has more than $70 billion stashed away in foreign banks, together with access to more than 50 executive jets and airliners. I'm sure he's already identified his most likely bolt-holes in case it all goes south, and I bet south is the direction he is likely to go.

Put another way, Putin wants to reintegrate the "Near Abroad", but he cannot do it militarily. It must seem like a voluntary "return" of the prodigal sons.

Stuart, I agree with your assessment of Russian military readiness and ability; much better than a paper tiger, but still not much bite.

I have a serious question for you. I am surprised that the Ukraine military hasn't turned against Yanukovych, and he has the loyalty of the "palace guard." It appears to me that the army is still controlled and commanded by pro-Russian generals; until they are replaced I see no end to the violence.

What is your assessment?

I believe the military was trying to remain aloof from politics, deference to the civil authorities being something we inculcated in all those Ukrainian officers we've trained since 1989. Of course, the civil authority in the U.S. is a very different thing from that in Ukraine, but the dangers of military rule are probably foremost in their mind.

What is more noteworthy than the failure of the military to overthrow Yanukovich is its refusal to take action against the demonstrators, which is what has forced Yanukovich to rely on the security services and hired thugs.

If the Parliament votes to oust Yanukovitch, and the security forces do not stand down, or Yanukovich attempts to contest the parliamentary decree, then the army will feel absolved of its obligation to defer to Yanukovich and would follow the orders of any interim government to disarm and disband the security forces and the various armed gangs supporting them.

Pro-EU supporters attacked in Crimea.

I think you are right. I think Ukraine could fall into complete and utter chaos. The Svoboda party has been causing a lot of the violence in the Euromaidan protests, and has even been attacking Jews. The Svoboda does not like Russia, but it does not like the EU either. I think the forces of anarchy are going to spread.

I pray for a non-aligned and peaceful Ukraine, but I think my prayers may go unanswered.

Rabbi urges Ukrainian Jews to leave Kiev as Yanukovich is ousted by Parliament [jns.org]

From the article:

"On Friday Ukrainian Rabbi Moshe Reuven Azman asked Kiev Jews to leave the city and, if possible, the country, due to fears that Jews might be targeted in the ongoing chaos. The Israel National News reported Friday that some Jewish shops have been vandalized and other threats to the Jewish community have been received.

'I told my congregation to leave the city center or the city all together and if possible the country too. . . . I don't want to tempt fate . . . but there are constant warnings concerning intentions to attack Jewish institutions,' Rabbi Azman told Maariv."

Relax Todd - the bandits Yanukovych et alia are on the run. Today, the protesters stormed his lavish digs north of Kyiv and Ukraine news journalists are filming just how well he lived courtesy of the blood of the people.

President Putin appears to be disowning that bandit.

Ukrainian Jews, including four young professionals who are acquaintances of mine who have been out on the Maydan since January, are fully supportive of this revolt against the Yanukovich oligarchs. Synagogues have assisted with soup kitchens for the protesters.

As for chaos and instability - it is precisely against the Yanukovich corruption that the protesters, students, dentists, doctors, lawyers etc. have fought against - and have overcome.

And Yanukovich has fallen and is trying to escape. Hopefully, he will be brought to justice.

Time for an independent Ukraine to rebuild. The UOC-MP has declared a period of mourning for those killed that will last until Pascha.

We should all observe it. And the police forces, including Berkut, have now pledged allegiance of loyalty to Ukraine and the same people in the streets they have been fighting.

A great day.

(Withdrawn with apologies to Todd)

Alex

This is really uncharitable! Are you calling Todd, "anti-Ukrainian?" Perhaps you should relax a little bit, sir.

Furthermore, both sides have blood on their hands. The protesters are also guilty of murder. CNN ran a story, (when the truce was called), of the protesters running after the security forces as they were retreating....and throwing Molotov cocktails at their heads.

I hope they don't go running too fast into the arms of the EU. They may find that they escaped a bad situation for something worse.

I pray for a true independence....and a true peace....for the people of Ukraine.

Recluse,


Yes, both sides have killed. The secret service police have killed many more as they are properly armed and have shot and killed people who are not armed. To defend oneself as best as one can is every person's right - it's never nice but it's one's right.

The police forces have, in any event, gone over to the side of the people and have pledged allegiance to them.

They have repented of their allegiance to a billionaire despot/dictator. They have chased him away and now, even in the most Russian of cities, Donetsk, the authorities there will not let him leave the country. He will face the consequences of his actions - sic semper tyrranis and all that.

The citizens of Ukraine took down the dictatorship that oppressed them - these include ethnic Ukrainians, Russians, Belarusyans, Crimean Tatars, Armenians, Orthodox, Catholics of three Particular Churches, Jews, Lutherans and others.

They moved against tyranny in the first instance.

Where they go next is a decision that will be in their hands - not yours and not mine.

If you feel I'm excited etc. - St Thomas Aquinas (whom I'm sure you will remember from your Catholic days) affirmed that it is a virtuous thing to be angry in a just cause.

Today, thousands of citizens of Ukraine, including seven members of my extended family, toured the now empty compound of the despot who built lavish castle-like structures for his own enjoyment. There was no looting, no violence - just thousands of people looking on in disbelief.

This movement was supported by the Church and her priests and bishops. Even a Canadian teacher of English as a second language that I know took part in them waving a Canadian flag.

The dictator has been overthrown. He would not be in the situation he is in now had he treated his own people with some modicum of respect and dignity.

And you are wrong about the emphasis on the EU. What started as a reaction to the president's unilateral actions became a movement for independence.

The people have overtaken the dictator and have stormed the bastille.

A group of men and women, unarmed, grabbed hold of a sniper who shot at protestors from the roof-top.

They beat him as they held him and one woman held a Cross to his face saying, "Christ will judge you for what you have done."

He repented and then told the people to beat him some more. They refused and then embraced him.

And now our Bishop Boris Gudziak is referring to those who were shot by the secret police in the streets as martyrs and is calling for their lives to be written.

Our EC and Orthodox Churches (of all jurisdictions) continue to mourn these young people and will do so until Pascha.

So perhaps I shouldn't have said Todd is anti-Ukraine. OK, I apologise. So I'm sensitive. So are you, sir.

I guess that occurs in us because we seem to share a reclusive character . . .

Anyway, I'm sorry I don't have you as my spiritual Father.

You would whip me into shape in no time.

God bless you.

Alex

Don't forget people enjoying a few holes of golf on Yanukovich's own private course, using his own personalized gold-plated clubs.

Let us not forget that, outrageous as Yanukovich's corruption was, it is small beer as compared to that inflicted upon the Russian people by Vladimir Putin and his cronies.