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An interesting article about this was posted today. In IC XC, Father Anthony+ Odds are stacked against Chrome OS's success By Priya Ganapati
(WIRED) -- Google's netbook-friendly Chrome OS takes direct aim at Microsoft, whose eight-year-old Windows XP leads the netbook market. But the odds are stacked against Google.
In competing with Windows, Google Chrome OS will have to deal with many of the same challenges Linux has: compatibility, usability, and unfamiliarity. The record isn't good: In the past year, Linux-based netbooks have rapidly lost market share to Microsoft, as people find that Linux doesn't work as expected, may not support the applications or peripherals they're used to using, and is just plain different.
"The propeller heads or early adopters understood what Linux was about," says Richard Shim, an analyst with IDC, a market research company. "But as netbooks have gone mainstream, users want the apps they are familiar with rather than the non-standard ones on Linux."
While sales of netbooks have exploded, Linux's market share on these devices has dramatically declined. In 2008, about 24.5% of netbooks shipped with an Linux operating system, estimates IDC. This year, it's expected to plunge to 4.5% and in 2010, only 3 percent of all netbooks will run a Linux OS.
Even if it offers the same or better features than similarly-equipped Windows notebooks, Google Chrome OS will face the same uphill battle Linux has.
Here's what Google needs to figure out to make Chrome OS a success.
Compatibility with popular applications
Some of the earliest netbooks featuring Linux faced high rates of return because they did not support popular applications, says Shim.
"Many users found that the universe of applications compatible with Windows was much larger than those with Linux," Shim says. "So when they looked at their Linux netbooks not only did it run non-standard apps but also a graphical interface they weren't familiar with."
Chrome OS will run on top of a Linux kernel, although Google has said that it will have an entirely new interface and will run all web applications rather than native Linux apps.
Multimedia compatibility issues in some flavors of Linux helped add to early customer confusion, says Chris Kenyon, director of OEM services at Canonical, which supports Ubuntu. "Some of those Linux netbooks that didn't have Flash preinstalled or multimedia codecs pre-installed faced lot of problems," he says.
Translation: If a customer can't watch YouTube on her new netbook, she's more likely to return the netbook rather than install Adobe's Flash plugin for Linux.
What Google must do: Google Chrome OS can't afford to make those mistakes. Flash support and the ability to play a wide variety of multimedia files will have to be standard. And where popular application support is missing, Google will have to ensure that it provides satisfying alternatives (such as Google Docs in place of Microsoft Word).
Usability
User interface is a big factor for computer buyers. Many netbook buyers are first-time Linux users. And these newbies have often been stumped by the operating system's unusual interface. Even with very Windows-like and user-friendly Linux distributions, like Ubuntu, they often don't know how to perform simple system management or hardware configuration tasks. Options for those exist on the OS but new users have to put in the effort to learn, which can be a turnoff. Chrome OS will have to find a way to offer its customers a familiar graphical user interface that makes it easy to do the tasks they have been used to on a Windows operating system.
"UI is a very significant component for new operating systems," says Shim. "You have to fight the first impression that this is different and then you have to sell people on why different is better."
What Google must do: Google needs to integrate Gmail, Google Docs and the Chrome web browser in a package that makes it easy to not just use these individual programs but also perform other routine tasks, such as installing new software or changing display configurations.
Compatibility with popular hardware
Google will also be under pressure to ensure Chrome OS works flawlessly with gadgets such as cameras, printers, smartphones and e-book readers. So far, Linux netbooks have had a spotty record. Some such as Ubuntu or Red Hat offer better support for popular gadgets but still users have faced compatibility problems. A recent review from the Wall Street Journal complained that Linux-based netbooks could not load software drivers to print photos to Canon and Dell printers. The review also said there were problems loading pictures over a USB cable from the Canon PowerShot SD750 digital camera onto a Dell Mini 10 netbook running Ubuntu.
Another big stumbling block for Google will be iTunes. The popularity of iPods means that many people expect their netbook to sync with their iPods. However, netbooks running Linux do not support iTunes, including Ubuntu, and that means no iPod or iPhone support.
"iTunes itself doesn't work on Ubuntu but you can use emulators," says Kenyon. "It's something we would like to change."
It also has to be dead-simple to use hardware that's pre-installed on your netbook, such as a webcam, a Bluetooth connection, or a 3G wireless data card.
What Google must do: Ubuntu and other Linux vendors may not have the clout to get Apple to support Linux, but Google could make it happen for Chrome OS. Google and Apple share a close relationship, and Google CEO Eric Schmidt is a member of Apple's board of directors.
Also, drivers for Wi-Fi hardware or webcams in the netbooks come pre-loaded with Windows netbooks; Chrome OS will have to ensure it offers customers the same simplicity right out of the box.
Resistance to change
PC users may complain about glitches in the Windows operating system, the viruses and the blue screen of death. But unhappy as they may be, they are not beating down the doors of any of the Linux vendors to get a new OS. More than 80 percent of the at least billion PCs worldwide run some version of Windows, and 96 percent of netbooks are running Windows, according to NPD Group.
Changing consumer expectations has been one of the biggest challenges that Linux vendors face. Google will have to deal with this, too.
What Google must do: Massive advertising. Fortunately for Google, this is a business it knows well.
Support from netbook makers
One of Microsoft's biggest strengths is the relationships it has built with device makers such as Dell, HP, Lenovo and Asus. As a new entrant Google will have to work with these PC makers to ensure that netbooks come pre-loaded with Chrome OS. Google can probably swing a few early deals, as it has with Android, but to be a force to reckon with it needs to ensure widespread availability.
So far, Linux vendors have found that difficult to get OEMs completely on board. PC makers don't want to jeopardize their relationship with Microsoft, which powers the higher-margin products such as desktops and notebooks.
What Google must do: Wheel-and-deal to ensure that Google Chrome OS is available on as many netbooks as possible. CNN Technology Story [ cnn.com]
Everyone baptized into Christ should pass progressively through all the stages of Christ's own life, for in baptism he receives the power so to progress, and through the commandments he can discover and learn how to accomplish such progression. - Saint Gregory of Sinai
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I found another article on El Reg this morning Google has rather rashly claimed its plans to develop an operating system promise an end to security woes.
The search giant said Google Chrome OS, due to debut in the second half of next year and initially targeted at netbooks, will be based on open source code and offer unprecedented security.
Sundar Pichai, VP of product management and Linus Upson, engineering director at Google, pledged an end to not just the need to run antivirus but of security updates more generally in a blog posting ....... Security thoughts ? [theregister.co.uk]
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Hawk may have a point in the $200-$300 computer market, but right now the difference between a Linux based computer and a XP based one is about $50. Unless one were were a computer geek it seems silly to go for the Linux based machine as you're going to have a challenge getting everything from programs to drivers. I am not sure that saving $50 on the machine is going to get anyone to purchase Chrome. The unless here is if Chrome is so good, and offers everything you can get on a pc or mac running smoothly over the high-speed internet connection everyone has. 
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Yes, but is there any guarantee that Google is not going charge for their OS? No, but I'd be surprised if they did; they'll gain more from open sourcing it. Google will make its money from these things being in use, rather than selling them. I published a paper where I actually did the economic modeling behind various types of open source software, and this would seem to fit into the category that the software running around enables another profit center. When netbooks were first released and even on a recent price check of various manufacturers, those that had non-Windows operating systems installed, had only a $50 price difference at most. I know, because I carefully was pricing and checking specs before I purchased mine. But that's not the economics that will ultimately drive these things. It will be from the *manufacturer's* end--looking at a total cost of $125 instead of $175 to make the machine that sells for $250 (or whatever). hawk
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Won't economics (quantity demanded) drive these things in the long term? In the short term manufacturers produced HD-DVDs by the pallet full, but now the market shift has gone to Blu-Ray.
Microsoft is already well established. If Google makes an impact, the people marketing it will make it into some textbooks.
Terry
Last edited by Terry Bohannon; 07/16/09 10:30 AM.
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Absolutely. But we'll likely end up with a market for "$200 netbooks" (or some other price), just like we now have the $400 laptop market.
The operating system merely becomes part of the cost of producing that quasi-commodity. If you can make the netbook without it, you can meet the target price; if not, you can't sell it.
Also note that all of Microsoft's monopolies are "contestable monopolies" that Microsoft obtained by displacing the incumbent--it can happen again.
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Also note that all of Microsoft's monopolies are "contestable monopolies" that Microsoft obtained by displacing the incumbent--it can happen again. Yes, just look at how the second browser war is going. Depending upon the source one uses Microsoft's IE has dropped to either 65 percent (NetApplications) or less than 40 percent (w3schools.com) share of the browser market. So who knows what the future holds.
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Not that 65% is a bad market share by any means  Heck, I'd be perfectly happy with Apple's share of the desktop market . . .
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